It’s not that Affleck necessarily would have won — though he captured several other directing honors for “Argo” — but not to have been nominated is mind-boggling. The “Gigli” backlash is apparently long-lasting.
The Winner: Ang Lee worked wonders with a new actor, a CGI tiger and 3-D cameras, but have you heard of this Steven Spielberg guy?
Upset Chance: Can Affleck win on write-in votes? No? Well, don’t fall out of your chair if Russell sneaks in instead.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Traditionally, the Supporting Actor awards offer the biggest surprises, and almost anything could happen here, with five former Oscar winners vying for another statuette.
The Winner: Robert DeNiro is the favorite, but Tommy Lee Jones was able to do the impossible: steal scenes from Day-Lewis in “Lincoln.”
Upset Chance: DeNiro could definitely win, but it wouldn’t be an upset. If Christoph Waltz snuck in again to take an Oscar for “Django Unchained,” that would be an upset.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
OK, so maybe Day-Lewis isn’t the only slam-dunk winner.
The Winner: It was one song, but Anne Hathaway nailed it in “Les Miserables.”
Upset Chance: How about some support for Helen Hunt, outstanding in the little-seen “The Sessions.”
Email Steve Ouellette: email@example.com