Strength seems to have been yielded to Democrats in long-held upstate

ALBANY — In the past eight months, Republicans in New York have lost long-held territory to Democrats in two special congressional elections, leaving some wondering if the GOP still has the power to win top-level races in the left-leaning state.

"The long-term trends are running steadily and clearly against Republicans in the Northeast," Robert McClure, a political science professor at Syracuse University's Maxwell School, said Wednesday, a day after the GOP lost the 23rd Congressional District.

New York Republicans now hold just 2 of 29 seats in the U.S. House, while Democrats control all six statewide elected offices and both houses in the Legislature.

The latest setback was Democrat William Owens's victory in Tuesday's special election in the rural 23rd, where he overcame a 45,000-voter registration edge for the Republicans and gained control of the seat for the first time since the late 1800s.

"That was a district that would have been won by the Republican, but they cannibalized their own victory by attacking a home-grown Republican," said former Gov. Eliot Spitzer, a Democrat.

The race pitted conservative and more liberal wings of the Republican Party in an ideological battle nationally and statewide. Conservative Douglas Hoffman and his backers argued Republican Dierdre Scozzafava was too liberal to represent the GOP, specifically attacking her support of abortion rights and same-sex marriage. A favorite early on, Scozzafava dropped out of the race and backed Owens over the weekend as her support in polls and fundraising ebbed.

The Republican loss in the 23rd race comes months after a March special election in the 20th Congressional District narrowly went to a Democrat. It had previously been held by now-Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democrat, but was historically solid ground for the GOP.

"The Republican Party nationally has become almost entirely an oppositionist organ. ... Voters even in the most Republican strongholds still want their candidates to have ideas to move the country forward," said Democratic state Rep. Anthony Weiner. "And right now, the Republicans in New York have kind of been bereft of real ideas."

The news isn't all bad for Republicans. With 95 percent of precincts reporting, Owens had 49.4 percent of the vote, compared with 45.1 for Doug Hoffman and 5.5 for Scozzafava.

And the GOP managed to do well in local races — where many have argued the state party needs to refocus rebuilding efforts. Voter frustration with taxes appears to have worked against the incumbent Democrats in some of these races, including one that saw Democratic Westchester County Executive Andrew Spano lose in his bid for a fourth term. The Nassau County executive race was too close to call, with two-term incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holding a narrow lead over Republican Edward Mangano. Republicans also regained control of county legislatures in the Hudson Valley's Dutchess and Ulster counties.

"If elected officials wanted feedback, they got feedback yesterday ... it is that government has to be closer to solving problems that affect people in their everyday lives, and if you don't do that, Republicans are going to vote for Democrats and Democrats are going to vote for Republicans," said state Assemblyman Richard Brodsky, a Democrat.

Despite the state's blue bent and a tendency to become even more of a sure thing for Democrats each year, Republican leadership insists they're not heading for extinction.

"We are very, very relevant and we are coming back because we offer a better vision of our states and America," said New York state Republican Chairman Edward Cox.

"This augurs well for the congressional races in 2010," he said. "If I were a Democrat in one of those 47 districts (nationally) that (GOP presidential candidate John) McCain won, and have Democrats in Congress, I would be very scared for my job."

"No matter what the signs of the Democratic registration advantage, (Republicans) ain't going to quit," said Doug Muzzio, a politics professor at Baruch College. "They may succeed in becoming different than they were, but whoever they are, they're not going to quit."

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Associated Press writers Michael Gormley in Albany and Samantha Gross in New York City contributed to this report.