For the past month, I have received a series of e-mails on two outdoor topics I have yet to find definitive answers for.

Mike Michener is a longtime smelt fisherman, now living in Peru, who grew up in and has fished the Port Henry area for most of his life. He and his cousin Gary keep a journal of each year's fishing.

Mike writes, "We have found the seven-year (smelt) drought to be real. We can trace it back 21 years, and every seven, the fishing was poor to non-existent." He adds, "I have experienced the lake turning over and the fishing being slow for a few days to a week or so -- never an entire season like this one."

Kyle Scanlon, editor of Vermont Outdoors magazine, said there has been similarly bad perch fishing in the Inland Sea of the lake as well.

My first thought on a cause for this was alewives. Vermont Fish and Wildlife Commissioner Wayne LaRoche reported 2 million to 3 million estimated alewives, based on below-water research. The alewife die-off on the Vermont side of the lake was widely reported last fall. There is little doubt these fish are increasing in numbers at a tremendous rate, but could they have affected the perch and smelt so much this early on?

Dr. Ellen Marsden, a University of Vermont professor and Lake Champlain fisheries expert, doesn't think so.

"It is highly incorrect to say these species have disappeared -- scarcity in fishermen's catches can be affected by a variety of factors, not the least of which is temperature (the lake is very cold this year due to lack of ice cover on large parts of the main lake), alternate food sources (so they are less interested in lures) and population cycles."

These cycles are one of Michener's theories.

Marsden adds, "It is probably too soon to see an interaction, as the alewife population only began its rapid increase this year; the effect may be competition, which would not significantly affect perch and smelt until later this year, if at all, or direct predation on larval perch, which again would not happen until this year's spawning season."

Apparently, there may be some truth in the theory of cycles for smelt. Yellow perch may be harder to explain. I was told by one conservation officer that anglers are, in fact, catching perch in Cumberland Bay, a section of the lake with a 50-perch-per-day limit.

Maybe as we get into spring, we'll get more definitive answers. I have heard of some very heavy northern pike caught in King's Bay (maybe they are feasting on alewives). Also, the lake-trout and salmon-fishing reports have been good and, as Kyle Scanlon points out, "With the alewives, I expect to see some monster pike caught in the fishing derbies this spring."

So, there may be a silver lining to this after all, but no real answers yet.

Owl Mystery

I've received a lot of barred owl photos sent to me this winter, and have been trying to get in the paper as many as I can if they are the correct resolution for the newspaper. On the downside, there are reports of these owls seen in weakened conditions near bird feeders, and some have even been found dead. The experienced birders I know haven't been able to answer the question of why these owls are dying. One theory I have is that because this winter has been so long with so much snow followed by a crust, the barred owl's main prey -- rodents like voles and mice -- are safely moving about under the snow and not available to the owls.